Hurt Locker-9, Avatar-9, Inglourious Basterds-8...

"The Perfect Storm," Kris Tapley of InContention.com has called it. As if you weren't already convinced that this year is a close call, the academy has decided to spread the love in their nominations, which were announced yesterday morning at around 5:30am in Los Angeles.

I don't want to overstate the fact that this year is unpredictable, because I think we do have a frontrunner in each category. Some are clearer than others, but it's not as if we have no way of narrowing it down.

The Best Picture Race
In the case of Best Picture, I think we can go ahead and call it for The Hurt Locker (but only if there were a gun to my head and I just had to give you an answer). The Hurt Locker is the only nominee to carry nominations in three important areas—acting, writing, and editing, whereas Avatar only has support in the editing category. The last film to win without a writing nomination was Titanic (which Cameron directed, of course) in 1998, and the last film to win without writing OR acting was Grand Hotel in 1932. So, history advises us that The Hurt Locker is ahead of Avatar; however, as I've said before, these rules were made to be broken. Certainly, anything is possible, but the lack of support in those areas for Avatar is a notable handicap.

Up in the Air, which has taken quite a few steps back since its early lead, has been wounded further by its failure to receive an editing nomination. The last film to win without an editing nomination was Ordinary People in 1980, and it only happened a handful of times before that. Editing is often an understated category at the Oscars, but it's also a huge indicator of the winner. I think we're looking at a sole win for Up in the Air at this point, in the Adapted Screenplay category.

I still see Inglourious Basterds as the upset in the Avatar/Hurt Locker battle, but in the end, I think IB will probably only win two—Best Supporting Actor and Original Screenplay (and even that one is a bit shakey—they could easily give it to The Hurt Locker if they're feeling generous).

So, how did "the 10" pan out? Just like they wanted, I suppose. Plenty of mainstream films in the lot, and I imagine that they will get their viewership from that. However, if you want to know who the "real" Best Picture nominees are, just match them with the Best Director category.



The Snubs
Honestly, there was not a whole lot to be surprised about yesterday morning. After the Globes, the SAGs, and the BFCA, awards season often turns into a bit of an echo chamber by the time we get to the Oscar noms, and this year is no exception.

Maggie Gyllenhaal's inclusion is certainly not something we've seen yet (and it's very, very well deserved). However, if they were going to kick someone out, I'd rather it were Penelope Cruz and not Julianne Moore (a casualty I will begrudge them for until further notice).

Another long shot I was hoping might make it into the Best Supporting Actor category is Anthony Mackie of The Hurt Locker. There's been a lot of "Hey, Mackie was great, too!" talk in conjunction with Jeremy Renner's buzz, and I just thought it might have been a possible upset. Instead, they went with their usuals (but seriously, what did Matt Damon do that was so great?).

And on that note, the last snub I'll address is one that I'm elated over—Invictus. Eastwood simply did not give us the best Nelson Mandela movie he could, and I'm grateful that they did not just give him the nomination because of who he is. However, is The Blind Side really what should take its place?

If anything, The Blind Side's inclusion tells us that Sandra Bullock now has everything she needs to win Best Actress—momentum, charisma, and a Best Picture-nominated film.

God help us.

What are your thoughts on this year's nominations?

The Complete Oscar Nominations 2010

In case you missed them elsewhere...

Analysis tomorrow, when I have time.


Best Picture
“Avatar”
“The Blind Side”
“District 9”
“An Education”
“The Hurt Locker”
“Inglourious Basterds”
“Precious”
“A Serious Man”
“Up”
“Up in the Air”

Best Director
James Cameron, “Avatar”
Kathryn Bigelow, “The Hurt Locker”
“Quentin Tarantino, “Inglourious Basterds”
“Lee Daniels, “Precious”
Jason Reitman, “Up in the Air”

Best Actor
Jeff Bridges, “Crazy Heart”
George Clooney, “Up in the Air”
Colin Firth, “A Single Man”
Morgan Freeman, “Invictus”
Jeremy Renner, “The Hurt Locker”

Best Actress
Sandra Bullock, “The Blind Side”
Helen Mirren, “The Last Station”
Carey Mulligan, “An Education”
Gabourey Sidibe, “Precious”
Meryl Streep, “Julie & Julia”

Best Supporting Actor
Matt Damon, “Invictus”
Woody Harrelon, “The Messenger”
Christopher Plummer, “The Last Station”
Stanley Tucci, “The Lovely Bones”
Christoph Waltz, “Inglourious Basterds”

Best Supporting Actress
Penelope Cruz, “Nine”
Vera Farmiga, “Up in the Air”
Maggie Gyllenhaal, “Crazy Heart”
Anna Kendrick, “Up in the Air”
Mo’Nique, “Precious”

Best Adapted Screenplay
“District 9”
“An Education”
“In the Loop”
“Precious”
“Up in the Air”

Best Original Screenplay
“The Hurt Locker”
“Inglourious Basterds”
“The Messenger”
“A Serious Man”
“Up”

More after the jump...

Predicting the Oscars...

As I'm trying to gather together my thoughts on the unveiling we're in for tomorrow morning, I can't help but feel unprepared. This year is as difficult as ever to predict, given rule changes, the ten (ugh...) slots for best picture, and the general even playing field across the board.

But that's what we want, right? We've had plenty of predictable years over the past decade, and for the first time in a while, Best Picture is wide open. Sure, The Hurt Locker is gaining steam after it's recent sweep of the PGA and DGA, but Avatar is still very much in the race, and I'd argue that Inglourious Basterds is close on their heels (especially, in the case that THL and Avatar split the votes). This year is very unpredictable, and I can't very well complain about that.

To be honest, I'm most looking forward to the snubs and upsets that tomorrow could bring.

One change that will certainly affect the game is the newly implemented preferential voting system. Academy members are asked to rank their nominees on their ballots for Best Picture 1-10, and #1 is weighted higher than #7, #2 higher than #9, etc. So, I think we're going to see films with really strong support like District 9 and hopefully A Serious Man over something like Invictus, which would most likely wind up at #9 on most ballots. Then again, this has never been done before, so it's hard to say what effect it will have. That's just an observation.

Whatever happens, I hope there are a few surprises. Again, unpredictable is what we want in an Oscar race, what makes it all the more interesting. But for the love of God, I just hope they don't make too many stupid decisions...

Predictions after the cut.

For Your Consideration: District 9, Best Picture

Many filmmakers have tackled the idea of humans confronted with aliens on earth before. In Independence Day, we saw Will Smith hunt down a pack of them as they threatened to take over the White House; Mel Gibson and Joaquin Phoenix examined crop circles in Signs; and a young Richard Dreyfuss encounters UFO's in the first film to scare the shit out of me as a child. Each of these were unique and progressive works of filmmaking at the time of their release. However, I don't think I've ever been so affected by an "alien movie" (for lack of a better classification) than by District 9.

From first-time director Neill Blomkamp (there have been a few freshmen directors this year, eh?), District 9 tells the story of aliens forced to live in the slums of South Africa, the governing society who keeps them in captivity, and a man who is thrown in the middle of the conflict. The protagonist, Wikus, is a government worker whose body, after an accident in which he is exposed to alien biotechnology, begins to mutate and transform into an alien. On the run from authorities who would rather just exterminate him, he is forced to leave his life behind and to assimilate into the alien ghettos.

The first act of the film plays out like an hour of CNN reporting of third world devastation, as we see Wikus and other South African officials confronting aliens with documents, legalities, and medical experiments. And just like that, Wikus' place in the story takes an abrupt turn, and the second half of the movie pulls the audience into his struggle to regain his identity.

As you might have guessed, the segregation of aliens from humans in the film serves as a parallel to the segregation of South Africa in the 20th Century. Indeed, there were two films released in 2009 that dealt with South African segregation, and I'll let you guess which one I think is better.

The academy has consistently ignored films of the science fiction or fantasy genres. However, rules were made to be broken, and I'm almost certain that we will see at least two included this year in the Best Picture category.

Thoughts on last night's SAG Awards...

Last night, the Screen Actors Guild handed out their highest honors to Monique, Christoph Waltz, Jeff Bridges, Sandra Bullock, and the ensemble cast of Inglourious Basterds.

As you might guess, the most surprising out of the bunch is the recognition for Sandra Bullock, and to be honest—I think the statue is her's to lose at this point. Bullock continues to hit all the right notes in her publicity walk, delivering witty acceptance speeches that only strengthen her likability. Streep is, of course, still very much in the running, but this is a huge loss for her. The actors make up a very significant portion of the Academy, so their awarding Bullock is indicative of a notable power shift in the race.

The truth is that in regards to Best Actress, we just won't know who wins until the envelope is opened. BAFTA will not help, considering Bullock's ineligibility. So there you have it—while the other three acting categories are locked in place, Best Actress is the toss up.

The Best Picture race, similarly, continues to remain wide open. It appears to be a two-horse race between Avatar and The Hurt Locker, but I think there are arguments to be made for Inglourious Basterds as well, especially after their ensemble acting win last night.

The Producers Guild will announce their winner tonight, and whoever wins that will gain some serious ground.

The Awards Season, from across the pond...

This morning, the British Academy of Film and Television Arts (BAFTA) announced their nominations for the films of 2009.

I'm a little disappointed in this list. Other than some amplified (and undeserved) recognition of An Education, this really just cements the growing Avatar—Hurt Locker battle that ensues this Oscar season. I'd hoped to see at least some of a departure from what we've been seeing all season long.

And really, I'm shocked that not even the Brit's can love Jane Campion's Bright Star, which scored a measly costume nomination. What a waste.

Here are the top categories, with the full list after the cut:

Best Film
Avatar
An Education
The Hurt Locker
Precious
Up in the Air

Best British Film
An Education
Fish Tank
In the Loop
Moon
Nowhere Boy

Best Director
James Cameron, Avatar
Neill Blomkamp, District 9
Lone Scherfig, An Education
Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker
Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds

Best Actor
Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart
George Clooney, Up in the Air
Colin Firth, A Single Man
Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker
Andy Serkis, Sex & Drugs & Rock & Roll

Best Actress
Carey Mulligan, An Education
Saoirse Ronan, The Lovely Bones
Gabourey Sidibe, Precious
Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia
Audrey Tautou, Coco Before Chanel

Best Supporting Actor
Alec Baldwin, It’s Complicated
Christian McKay, Me and Orson Welles
Alfred Molina, An Education
Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones
Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds

Best Supporting Actress
Anne-Marie Duff, Nowhere Boy
Vera Farmiga, Up in the Air
Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air
Mo’Nique, Precious
Kristin Scott Thomas, Nowhere Boy

Golden Globes: The Morning After...

Clearly, predicting the Globes is not my forte. But to explain myself a bit, I thought that if some of these underdogs had any chance at the awards season pie (see Up in the Air and Carey Mulligan), the Globes was their best shot. That obviously didn't pan out.

As the Globes coincided with the return of many of my classmates from our winter break, I spent the evening mostly not paying attention and catching up with friends. However, after spending some quality time with youtube this morning, I think I've pieced most of the night together. Here are some things I learned:



1. If there is any sort of uncertainty over who should win, the HFPA continues to default to awarding the biggest stars in each category. Although, how much do I care, really, that Robert Downey Jr. won the Globe for Sherlock Holmes? His speech was one of the most entertaining of the evening.


2. Kathryn Bigelow, at 59 years old, looks absolutely amazing. I'd like to get in on that fountain of youth she's been imbibing from.


3. Sandra Bullock is a threat to Meryl Streep...sort of. At this point, we can be sure that Sandra will be nominated. And because neither of the performances are *really* very good, it's now a matter of who they decide is most overdue and most charming in the publicity circuit. Regardless, I still refuse to see The Blind Side.


4. Jeff Bridges is officially a lock to win Best Actor. After two standing ovations this weekend (one at the BFCA on Friday and another at the Globes), it's safe to say that the acting community is well behind him in the race. And, I'm sure it took a lot for the HFPA not to just give it to Clooney.


5. It's not over until it's over. Some contenders need to watch their egos a bit, and I'm looking at James Cameron and Quentin Tarantino. If you want an Oscar, you have to show them that you don't think you deserve it. Thanking your actors for "doing my poetry" in your acceptance speech is likely to hurt your case.

And despite a complete shut out for The Hurt Locker, I still think it has a very good chance of winning Best Picture. I also have no doubt that Kathryn Bigelow will rain on the parade of her ex-husband, James Cameron, as she becomes the first woman to win Best Director at the Oscars in March.