BAFTA results and the incredibly skewed 2009 WGA awards...

This evening in London, BAFTA ( the British equivalent of our Academy) recognized The Hurt Locker, Colin Firth, Carey Mulligan, Christoph Waltz, and Mo'Nique.

It's hard to say how reliable a precursor BAFTA is to the Oscars. Two years ago, Marion Cotillard interrupted Julie Christie's season sweep with a BAFTA win and went on to nab the Oscar for Best Actress—and BAFTA won't let you forget it. They have since touted their achievement as a strong predictor of the Oscars.

Most of the time, they do align with Oscar, except when something more British seems a plausible upset. This year, Carey Mulligan is such a case.

Before you consider Mulligan's win a surprise, it's important to note that the current frontrunner, Sandra Bullock, was ineligible for BAFTA. So, really the win doesn't mean a whole lot. One could argue that the win hurts Meryl Streep, but I don't really think so. Mulligan is championed in her home country, and I think this is a classic case of voting for someone "more British."

The same could really be said for Colin Firth, who is the British alternative to Bridges. But I'm absolutely elated that Firth managed to win something. His performance in A Single Man seriously rivals that of Bridges in Crazy Heart. In fact, I'd say he tops him. This is not to say that I think Bridges will lose; I'm just happy that Firth has been recognized here. He deserved to win something.

It's also worth mentioning that while I still think that Inglourious Basterds has major upset potential in the Best Picture race, its loss of Best Original Screenplay to The Hurt Locker at the BAFTAS was somewhat of a blow. Perhaps the Brits just don't like Tarantino? I'm not sure what to make of it, but if he loses Screenplay on Oscar night, the door is shut for Best Picture.


In other news, despite naming almost half the contending films ineligible for their award, WGA has awarded The Hurt Locker for Best Original Screenplay and Up in the Air for Best Adapted Screenplay. But again, Inglourious Basterds was ineligible here. Otherwise, I'm almost certain that Tarantino would have taken the award.