Predicting the Oscars...

As I'm trying to gather together my thoughts on the unveiling we're in for tomorrow morning, I can't help but feel unprepared. This year is as difficult as ever to predict, given rule changes, the ten (ugh...) slots for best picture, and the general even playing field across the board.

But that's what we want, right? We've had plenty of predictable years over the past decade, and for the first time in a while, Best Picture is wide open. Sure, The Hurt Locker is gaining steam after it's recent sweep of the PGA and DGA, but Avatar is still very much in the race, and I'd argue that Inglourious Basterds is close on their heels (especially, in the case that THL and Avatar split the votes). This year is very unpredictable, and I can't very well complain about that.

To be honest, I'm most looking forward to the snubs and upsets that tomorrow could bring.

One change that will certainly affect the game is the newly implemented preferential voting system. Academy members are asked to rank their nominees on their ballots for Best Picture 1-10, and #1 is weighted higher than #7, #2 higher than #9, etc. So, I think we're going to see films with really strong support like District 9 and hopefully A Serious Man over something like Invictus, which would most likely wind up at #9 on most ballots. Then again, this has never been done before, so it's hard to say what effect it will have. That's just an observation.

Whatever happens, I hope there are a few surprises. Again, unpredictable is what we want in an Oscar race, what makes it all the more interesting. But for the love of God, I just hope they don't make too many stupid decisions...

Predictions after the cut.


Best Picture
Avatar
The Hurt Locker
Up in the Air
Precious
Inglorious Basterds
Up
An Education
District 9
A Serious Man
Invictus

Best Director
Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker
James Cameron, Avatar
Jason Reitman, Up in the Air
Quentin Tarantino, Inglorious Basterds
Lee Daniels, Precious

Best Actor
Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart
George Clooney, Up in the Air
Colin Firth, A Single Man
Morgan Freeman, Invictus
Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker

Best Actress
Meryl Streep, Julie and Julia
Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side
Gabourey Sidibe, Precious
Carey Mulligan, An Education
Emily Blunt, The Young Victoria

Best Supporting Actor
Christoph Waltz, Inglorious Basterds
Woody Harrelson, The Messenger
Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones
Alfred Molina, An Education
Christopher Plummer, The Last Station

Best Supporting Actress
Mo'Nique, Precious
Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air
Vera Farmiga, Up in the Air
Julianne Moore, A Single Man
Maggie Gyllenhaal, Crazy Heart

Best Original Screenplay
The Hurt Locker, Mark Boal
Inglourious Basterds, Quentin Tarantino
Up, Bob Peterson and Pete Docter
A Serious Man, Joel and Ethan Coen
(500) Days of Summer, Scott Neustadter, Michael H. Weber

Best Adapted Screenplay
Up in the Air, Jason Reitman and Sheldon Turner
An Education, Nick Hornby
District 9, Neill Blomkamp and Terri Tatchell
Precious, Geoffrey Fletcher
A Single Man, Tom Ford